Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) whales are currently sitting on record profits for this market cycle, highlighting both the strength of the recent rally and potential profit-taking risks. On-chain data shows these investors—defined as entities holding more than 1,000 BTC acquired in the past 155 days—are enjoying the highest unrealized gains seen in this cycle.
CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn shared on X that the Unrealized Profit & Loss (P&L) metric for STH whales has surged to $10.1 billion, marking a new cycle high. The indicator tracks the net profit or loss of holders who bought Bitcoin within a relatively short timeframe, providing insight into market sentiment and potential selling pressure.
Who Are the STH Whales?
Short-term holders typically include market participants who purchased Bitcoin within the last 155 days. Within this cohort, the whales—those holding over 1,000 BTC—represent significant influence on price action due to the sheer size of their positions.
Unlike smaller investors, STH whales have the capacity to impact the market if they decide to liquidate, especially during periods of heightened volatility. With Bitcoin now trading near all-time highs, most STH whales are sitting on substantial profits, excluding those who bought at the peak above $125,000 last weekend.
Unrealized P&L Hits Cycle High
The Unrealized P&L metric reflects the net amount of profit or loss Bitcoin holders would realize if they sold their holdings at current prices. Historically, a spike in this metric for STH whales can signal increased risk of profit-taking, as weaker hands may sell when the market reaches record levels.
Over the past year, the chart shared by Maartunn shows STH whale profits fluctuating in response to market cycles. During late September’s pullback, many STHs fell into the red, but the latest rally has pushed the Unrealized P&L back to positive territory, surpassing $10 billion.
Potential Market Implications
While these profits underscore the strength of Bitcoin’s rally, they also raise questions about market stability. Weak hands among STH whales could be tempted to sell, especially after recent gains, potentially creating short-term price corrections.
However, the broader market context suggests that demand may absorb some of this selling pressure. Institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic factors supporting Bitcoin’s rally could help maintain upward momentum despite profit-taking.
Supply Dynamics: Long-Term vs Short-Term Holders
The current cycle has seen notable shifts in Bitcoin supply dynamics. On-chain analysis by Checkonchain highlights two significant waves of coins moving from long-term holders (LTHs) to STHs. According to their data, 3.45 million BTC has shifted into short-term hands during this cycle—a figure comparable to the 2016–2017 bull run, but at 100 times higher prices.
This movement indicates that more coins are now concentrated with holders who may react quickly to market fluctuations. While this increases potential volatility, it also reflects broader liquidity and activity within the market.
Market Sentiment and Next Steps
Analysts are watching closely to see if STH whales decide to lock in profits. If a significant number of these whales sell, Bitcoin could face a temporary pullback. Conversely, sustained buying pressure from other market participants, including retail investors and institutions, could offset potential selling and push prices even higher.
For now, the $10.1 billion profit level serves as a key psychological milestone. Market observers will likely use it as a reference point for assessing potential correction risks versus continued bullish momentum.
Conclusion
Bitcoin short-term holder whales are riding the highest profits of the current cycle, signaling both the strength of recent gains and the potential for near-term market volatility. As Bitcoin continues trading near all-time highs, the actions of these whales—whether holding or selling—will play a critical role in shaping the market’s next moves. On-chain metrics, such as the Unrealized P&L and LTH-to-STH supply shifts, provide valuable insight into market psychology, helping traders and investors anticipate potential trends.
With a combination of institutional inflows, macroeconomic tailwinds, and active whale activity, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory will depend on whether demand can absorb potential profit-taking or if short-term corrections take hold.
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