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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new essay on March 2 arguing that prolonged US military engagement with Iran would increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing, ultimately driving Bitcoin higher.His thesis rests on a four-decade pattern: every major US military campaign in the Middle East has been followed by Fed easing, and he expects Iran to be no different.War and the Fed: A Recurring PatternIn “iOS Warfare,” Hayes presented a historical analysis linking US military operations in the Middle East to subsequent monetary easing by the Fed. He noted that every US president since 1985…

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, raised its STRC preferred stock dividend by 25 basis points for March 2026, as Bitcoin (BTC) drawdown continues to push MSTR shares down.Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC). The STRC dividend rate is set monthly to keep shares trading near their $100 par value, limiting price volatility.Why it matters: Bitcoin’s drawdown has impacted both MicroStrategy’s Class A shares, MSTR, and its balance sheet. MSTR has declined 14.77% year-to-date (YTD) amid BTC’s drawdown. The largest cryptocurrency itself has dropped nearly 24% in the same time frame. STRC’s stability near $100 par contrasts with MSTR’s volatility.…

Terrill Dicki Mar 01, 2026 10:27 Aave rebounds 6.70% to $113.11 as analysts eye $137 breakout target. Technical indicators show neutral RSI at 40.90 with key resistance at $125 ahead. Aave (AAVE) has staged an impressive recovery, surging 6.70% in the past 24 hours to trade at $113.11 as of March 1, 2026. With the DeFi lending protocol showing signs of technical strength and analyst targets pointing toward significant upside, this AAVE price prediction examines the key levels traders should monitor in the coming weeks. AAVE Price Prediction Summary • Short-term target (1 week): $125-$130• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $135-$140…

When U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Iran early Saturday morning, prediction markets faced the scenario critics and regulators had warned about days earlier.Kalshi’s Ali Khamenei ‘out of office’ contracts saw $21.7 million in volume across two markets before the exchange halted trading that afternoon. Polymarket’s equivalent contract — only available outside the U.S. — has been disputed twice, but accumulated more than $529 million in volume since opening in December.The two prediction markets took a different approach to handling both markets.Kalshi halted trading within hours of the strikes and issued reimbursementsPrices on the Khamenei contracts began climbing shortly following Trump’s…

Bitcoin’s future in an artificial intelligence-driven world may depend less on code and more on central banks.In a new note, Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at financial services and infrastructure firm NYDIG, argued that artificial intelligence will affect bitcoin mainly through macroeconomic channels and its impact on the labor market.The key variables are growth, employment, real interest rates and liquidity. Bitcoin, he writes, sits downstream of those forces.If automation cuts jobs and wages, consumer demand could weaken and, in a severe case, falling incomes would strain debt payments and pressure asset prices.Those fears appear to be well-grounded. Just this…

PANews, March 1st – In a week marked by repeated adjustments to Trump’s tariff policies and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, global markets oscillated amidst policy uncertainty and risk aversion. Aside from geopolitical tensions, the main macroeconomic events next week are as follows: At 22:45 on Monday, the final reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February will be released. At 23:00 on Monday, the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. At 21:15 on Wednesday, the US February ADP employment figures will be released. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on…

After exploring fundraising and acquisition options, the teams concluded that no sustainable recovery path existed following the breach. Solana-based DeFi aggregator, Step Finance, along with two other affiliate projects, SolanaFloor and Remora Markets, announced plans to shut down all operations with immediate effect. The decision follows the aftermath of a major security incident earlier this year. Hack, Halt, Shutdown In a statement shared on X, the teams said the decision came after exploring multiple paths forward, including fundraising and acquisition discussions. However, none resulted in a viable solution after the hack that occurred in late January. The incident involved an…

Bitcoin jumped to $68,000 early Sunday, recovering nearly all of Saturday’s war-driven losses within hours of Iranian state TV confirming that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.Khamenei held ultimate authority over Iran’s military, foreign policy, and nuclear program. Under Iran’s constitution, a temporary council of the president, head of the judiciary, and a Guardian Council jurist assumes leadership duties until the Assembly of Experts appoints a successor.U.S. president Donald Trump, meanwhile, has urged Iranians to overthrow the regime, calling this “probably your only chance for generations.” Tehran has continued firing missiles at Israel, and…

It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a Middle Eastern war into an active trading floor.Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran Saturday, the prediction market has seen a flood of new contracts covering everything from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will collapse by June.The speed and specificity of the markets is striking. Bettors aren’t just wagering on whether the conflict escalates, but pricing the week it ends, who replaces Khamenei, and whether U.S. ground forces enter Iran by March 7.Polymarket’s largest completed market is “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March…

Layer 2 was supposed to scale Ethereum. But what if it fragmented it instead?