Bitcoin (BTC) could end October with a new record high of $140,000, according to recent simulations by economist Timothy Peterson. Using ten years of Bitcoin’s price data, Peterson’s model suggests that the leading cryptocurrency has a 50% probability of crossing the $140K mark before the end of the month.
In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday, Peterson said, “There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k. But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k.” The economist emphasized that these probabilities are derived from data-driven models rather than emotional or speculative analysis.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $122,000, following a mild pullback after touching an all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the week, according to data from CoinMarketCap. To hit $140,000, Bitcoin would need to rally approximately 14.7% from its current price levels.
Simulation Based on Historical Data
Peterson explained that his model relies on Bitcoin’s daily price data from 2015 onward. The simulations, he said, are grounded in hundreds of iterations designed to replicate Bitcoin’s real-world volatility and recurring market rhythms.
“Every projection follows the same logic — price changes that match Bitcoin’s real historical, repetitive volatility and rhythm,” Peterson said. He further noted that the findings are based on mathematical probabilities, free from human bias or emotional influence.
Bitcoin opened October at approximately $116,500, meaning that reaching $140,000 would represent a 20.17% monthly gain — closely aligning with the cryptocurrency’s historical average for October. Data from CoinGlass shows that October has historically been Bitcoin’s second-best-performing month, with an average return of 20.75% since 2013.
Why October Is Historically Bullish for Bitcoin
October has long been known among traders as “Uptober,” reflecting Bitcoin’s tendency to post strong gains during this month. According to CoinGlass data, November is historically Bitcoin’s best month, with average gains of 46.02% over the last decade.
Peterson attributes October’s strong seasonal trend to institutional liquidity cycles. “Markets are not random in the short term,” he explained. “They are cyclical in liquidity, sentiment, and positioning. October is historically significant because it marks the turn of institutional capital cycles: the end of Q3 portfolio rebalancing, the start of fiscal year planning for funds, and the approach of year-end reporting windows.”
This cyclical behavior often brings renewed buying activity from institutional investors and funds, contributing to increased market momentum.
Analysts See Further Upside for Bitcoin
While Peterson’s analysis offers a data-driven probability of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 this month, market sentiment among crypto analysts remains broadly bullish.
Popular analyst Jelle shared that Bitcoin is retesting its previous all-time highs and could be preparing for another move upward. “It’s definitely over for bears. Send it higher,” Jelle wrote on X.
Similarly, crypto trader Matthew Hyland commented that “the pressure is building,” suggesting that the current consolidation could lead to another breakout in the near term.
If Bitcoin manages to sustain its current momentum, analysts believe a run toward $150,000 could be the next major target.
Data-Driven Forecasts vs. Market Reality
While historical models can provide useful insights into potential price outcomes, Peterson also cautioned that Bitcoin has a history of defying data-based expectations. The crypto market’s unpredictable nature, driven by macroeconomic shifts, investor sentiment, and liquidity changes, means that statistical forecasts should not be taken as guarantees.
“There have been many instances where Bitcoin has diverged from broader market expectations and failed to follow past patterns, even when data suggested otherwise with high confidence,” Peterson noted.
Nonetheless, he believes that probability-based projections help cut through market noise and offer a clearer picture of where Bitcoin’s value could head based on measurable data. “The result is a clear, probability-based picture of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to go,” he said.
Broader Market Confidence Remains High
Despite short-term volatility, confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains strong. The cryptocurrency’s recent rally past $125,000 — its new all-time high — has renewed optimism among both retail and institutional investors.
As Bitcoin continues to dominate headlines, analysts highlight that liquidity cycles, institutional demand, and historical seasonality could drive its next leg upward. Whether it reaches $140,000 by the end of October or not, the consensus is clear — Bitcoin’s bullish momentum remains intact, and data suggests the current market cycle may still have room to grow.
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